[kvin33]

The late Sonny Okosun once asked "Which way Nigeria", but a more important question may have been: How long can this continue? Can Nigeria continue on its current path for the next 10, 20, 50 years? If so what will it look like? If you ponder this for a few seconds, it will become clear that it is bound to come crashing down, maybe in 5 days, 5 months, or 5 years but definitely.

Oil benchmark 2008 budget, $53, 2009 budget, $45. Oil price expected average 2009, $43, current price $44. Nigeria OPEC quota cut 13% to 1.67 million barrels. Clearly we have a problem. Removing the subsidy is a major change but a secondary effect. Note the pump prices will not just rise it will fluctuate wildly. Serious as this is, it is but a symptom of a massive underlying problem that serious people are trying to manage.

Nonetheless, this is clinical insanity! These people are mad and must be removed from their positions before they kill us all. The way to destroy a country is to induce them to destroy themselves -who are these mad people listening to? The giant sucking sound you hear is the pocket of all Nigerians being drained. Starvation on mass scale is about to be unleashed across the country and these men are making academic arguments. This is incompetent economics, we have set the fuse that will blow up Nigeria. I guarantee you, this is the end. Nigeria is finished. The final phases of the collapse has begun, and it will proceed to its logical conclusion. At what speed, one cannot say precisely but it will continue, sector by sector, month by month, the collapse will be complete and it will be unstoppable.

Take the banks, the balance sheets of all the major banks have gaping holes. These banks are technically insolvent. If these banks honestly write down their losses, depositors will find out in short order that their money is gone. For instance, look at the direct and indirect investments in the stock market where prices were artificially driven to unsustainable levels, this has resulted in massive margin loan losses for the local banks as prices deflated over the past 24 months while foreign capital fled. FG bailout will bankrupt the country therefore is unlikely, IMF bailout is undesirable. In addition, the massive collapse in oil prices in the last 20 months has led to significant revenue shortfalls for both the FG and all states. As a result, states will either have to slash jobs, or cut pay, or default on their debts to the banks. The extra liquidity provided by the central bank to offset some of these losses over the last 12 months has resulted in a 20% depreciation in the Naira exchange rate with gold, foreign currencies and local purchasing power (price inflation). Clearly, that was not enough as further layoffs, austerity policies are being instituted to tax Nigerians to death. Subsidies are being lifted, capital contracts will be cancelled, strikes will paralyze education, transport fares will sky rocket, food prices will chase the dollar and still it will not be enough. Non-security government services, then security services will be cut back. Riots, clashes will erupt all over the country, of course we'll be told it is tribal, religious, anything to distract from the incompetence and mad men who will run us to the ground.

Take remittances, If you look at remittances which ran at $18 billion last year, 90% of which came from the west including over 50% just from the US, the center of the global credit crisis. The south, especially the south east survives on these remittances. A decline of 20%-40% over the next 12 to 24 months coupled with the exploding prices as the Naira plummets, will set the stage for a major catastrophe. In the west, population flows toward Lagos from all over the west and mid-west will swamp and overwhelm the city state, anarchy will reign.

Take Northern Nigeria, the problem in the north is scary. Many northerners have been reduced to the level of human cattle by a bunch of mad men who think they are God. In their quest to maintain power, less than 500 families have systematically looted the people of their wealth, their history, their future. Induced a gigantic population to set themselves on a path to destruction, to abandon all industry, trade, commerce, education, everything in exchange for an imperial system of dependency that is unsustainable and immoral. Genocide in the old eastern region is used to maintain this unholy system of mental slavery, but it has come to an end. There isn't enough money to go around! There is only but so many easterners to kill before you'll have to feed your people, when you can't, they'll turn on you. When that time comes, many will stand with the masses in the north. Look at Jos, Bauchi, Adamawa is about to blow. One by one, and it will escalate in the coming months. The true revolution some of us have been waiting for must start in the North, anything else is just a joke. Watch the headlines as they chronicle the collapse of a nation.

In the end, the scarcity of food will be the unstoppable force that will bring this era of governance to an end. 140 million people without food and "governors", "senators" etc think they will enjoy their loot, ha! These people should read up on the french revolution. My people, there will be blood. Judgement day is here. The time to plant is over, now we reap what we have sown. No retreat, no surrender. In the next 12 to 24 months, Nigeria as we have known it will cease to exist!