This is the end-game so MEND should expect all sorts of illegal tactics from a wounded government. Like in a game of chess, MEND must hold their nerves, remain calm, double check every single move, wait, wait and wait even more, until the government is completely haemorrhaged to death. Then out of the carcasses of the old Nigeria a new Nigeria will emerge where all the different nationalities will decide over a round table how they want to live together. MEND should realise that they are carrying the hopes of over one-hundred and forty million Nigerians who are too scared and have been cowed into living like dogs in their country. When ‘blood oil’ stops flowing and there is no more free money to steal, the present blood-stained Nigerian state will die naturally.
There's no denying that MEND's operations to cut Nigeria's oil production has definitely caused the Nigerian government to take it seriously. And I'm not very sympathetic with a government that in the past has callously treated people of the Niger Delta as it allows the pollution of their environment while oil is extracted from it.
But I'm not supportive of MEND either. For me, the issue is that they have never really clearly defined themselves and their strategy to the extent that they are easily separable from the criminals and other militants operating in the area. One moment, they are announcing a ceasefire; the next, they are re-attacking. Also, their aims are not clearly defined and well thought out; at one point, they were asking for Alamieyeseigha to be released; at another point, they were asking for billions of dollars of reparations to the people of the Niger Delta.
What I would like to see them do is to be clearer on strategy and aims. One thing they should definitely call for is a timeline from the government to end spillage of oil in the Delta. They should state clearly that any delay in the formulation of a plan by such and such a date would lead in a resumption of attacks. Another thing they could press for is more transparency in the administration of the NDDC so that it was clearer how the benefits intended for the people of the Niger Delta were being disbursed. And they could also press for freer and fairer elections in the Niger Delta states so that people got a chance to vote for people who really cared about their welfare, rather than putting up with PDP-imposed candidates.
As for the bolded bit, that is just wishful thinking. MEND's primary interest is to the people of the Niger Delta, and rightly so. If other groups are interested in a national conference, they should do their own work to make that happen, rather than relying to the efforts of a single group that they are not willing to support openly. Anyhow, it'll take more than a drying up of oil revenue to end the dominance of the Nigerian government over the affairs of the Nigerian people.