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Discussion in 'The Main Square' started by Ishola Taiwo, Aug 11, 2007.
you merit a thank you...and you got IT..lol!
Well, what more can I say...the emperor, or empress is naked, if you believe that capitalism is a female concept .
The era of financialisation of capital is proving to be the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on mankind. It is intriguing that the parallel discourse of 'terror', which is also symbolic of global imperialism is simultaneously unravelling. Some of the contributors here interpret what is being euphemistically referred to as the 'credit crunch' as a temporary (market) failure. On the contrary, there are systematic and severe defects in the global capitalist system, which created the crisis in the first place. The pricing of risk in financial markets was too low, and the illusory effect of debt-deflated economic growth created a short-term credit euphoria which masked declines in savings and productivity of critical industries in the North.
So what then? whither economics? well, the answer is: more of the same. The meeting of the G20 leaders agreed on a set of guidelines to increase the surveillance powers of the IMF, and globally co-ordinated fiscal stimuli. Of course, no-one really expects the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank to pay any heed to the exhortations of the IMF. I mean, look how well America 'listened' to the UN Resolutions in the run up to the Iraq invasion. Furthermore, as late as the summer of 2008, the IMF was still putting forward wildly optimistic projections on global economic growth. For all it is worth, these additional powers for the IMF will only have any impact in the margins of globalisation, in Africa.
If state resources are to be used to rescue ailing economies in the North, then peripheral states must be allowed to initiate and chart the course of their economic destinies. It is interesting to see how the Afropessimists tackle this conundrum - I suspect that we will see even more gloomy predictions for Africa. The rhetoric of state failure and decay in post-colonial Africa, which has been internalised by many Africans and their European cohorts, is so deeply rooted in academic sholarship, policy prescriptions and media images, that nothing short of an epiphany would be needed for alternative developmental strategies to emerge.
I've been getting flak from friends and colleagues for being critical of neoliberalism for ages (lol). I wouldn't even describe myself as a classic marxist, but the ideological debate is so polarised that many well-informed views have been ignored. All this makes a good case for analytical pluralism - obviously, no society has a monopoly on knowledge. Africans must fashion a narrative that represents their reality, and not uncritically accept foreign ideas which are themselves false and dubious.
On a lighter note, I must praise Eja, Ezb, Deep Thought and everyone else who has kept this thread alive, though some of us have been MIA (lol). In spite of all its flaws, the NVS brings together a host of talented and cerebral Nigerians. I can only hope that we are able to translate all these noble words and ideas into concrete actions, if the opportunity presents itself.
Welcome back, Neo.
The problem I have with critics of the capitalist system is not that some of their criticisms aren't valid, but that it often seems to be more about criticism than suggestion of a distinct alternative.
This is the clincher for me and though said many times is worth repeating:
" Africans must fashion a narrative that represents their reality, and not uncritically accept foreign ideas which are themselves false and dubious."
The above is the alternative, it's pretty clear to me.
Bullseye!! Aptly stated.
I'll even be more direct than you by stating unequivocally, that Neonaijansista's post up there, though seemingly high falutin (what, with all the big, big, 'grammar') simply consists of vague generalizations at best.
I'll reserve a more detailed commentary for if or when she offers a more cogent analysis of the current situation.
thanks molue bus
i believe shoko was speaking in general and not referring in particular to neo
im wondering if DW actually read the lines above
No, I wasn't referring to Neonaijasista specifically.
In any case, what Molue quoted there is a call to fashion an alternative, but it is not an alternative itself.
What is so mind-blowing about "the lines above"?
But there is/are alternatives. The thread in the crucible on Afrocentricm indeed offers broad outlinesn on what needs to be done.
And alternatives can only first be offered abstractly in general outlines or in what we may dismiss, if we wish as high falutin ideals. Once these high falutin ideas are in principle accepted, details can and will very be painfully worked out.
The thing is that people who don't see things this way will insist on immediate details of "alternative solutions".....as if institutions and details of capitalism/socialist economies that we now want to copy which are now standard/common place today in Europe and America came about immediately in a single day. Ideas upon which societies are built never come about upon demand in one fell swoop.
I'm afraid that I came away from the Afrocentrism debate without feeling any more enlightened about what the alternative is.
Perhaps it would be helpful if you (or anyone else who feels there is an alternative) to set such out the principles of such an alternative in a bullet pointed list.
I'm OK with that. I don't expect that all the details be produced right away, although I would expect a reasonable amount of flesh for a topic that so much thought has been devoted to.
I don't know about 'immediate details', but why is it unreasonable to ask for the alternatives? Some people may ask not because they are so in love with capitalism, but because they are genuinely looking for alternatives.
nothing actually ,
except that if there is to be any form of alternative , it has to be based on some sort of premise,
the lines above can form that premise
This is why I don't like offering solutions..(when I can do more satisfying and meaningful things like .....getting into a fight and abusing somebody's father )
These days, I prefer to be flippant rather than doing any serious writing because people will eventually put me to work and make me repeat what has already been offered over and over again in many threads over the years. It has become fraustrating and even if I take the trouble of putting fingers to keyboard I'm sure a year from now, someone will still ask the same questions. I should just refer you to the numerous threads but here goes....
The key concept of Afrocentrism to me is self reliance as a means of buffering one from unnecessary suffering and exploitation in a world that preys on the weak. This means Nigeria, Nigerians and Africa must be willing to make whatever sacrifices are necessary in attaining to self sustainance
But people dont' do things unless they see an immediate or at least a long term benefit. Education as to the reasons why certain things have to be done and the benefits of doing those things have first to be made evident to people. So the very first thing that has to be done is for the Nigerian and African public spaces to be inundated with Afrocentrist policies and goals.
I'll list a few things which needs to be done (Some of which I promise you won't like)
The philosophical challenge and Afrocentric solution
Right now centuries of living at the bottom of the scrapehill has done almost irrepairable damage to the minds of our people.
IF we are honest , we will acknowledge that the present state of mind of the African tells him that he is useless, that his culture (if he is permitted to have one) is subhuman, his religion is demonic, his spirituality is non existent, that he had no law and lived like a beast in the jungle prior to the comming of the Arab or European, that anything local or African is to be looked down upon as inferior, that other people and cultures are superior and that we must rely on the foreigner for validation or in order to prosper. THe list goes on and on......
A person that is defeated in his own mind can never aspire to anything so there has to be a philosophical change that Afrocentricm can help bring about in the typical African mind. A philosophical change will translate to an attitude change. How do we achieve the philosphical change? So what needs to be done?
An immediate and urgent revamping of education:
Proper education of the people in line with Afrocentric goals and policies must be the very first step in any solution to Nigeria's problems as every other thing will fail if people don't know or understand what Afrocentrist thought is or whiat it is, trying to do for them and if people have the wrong philosophical orientation.
An Afrocentrist education is one which is honest. One which while not pretending that the African didn't have his faults; still puts things in their proper perspectives. One which teaches African history, traditions, religions as normal, rather than subnormal. One which teachs us that Mungo Park was the first European to see the Niger, rather than one which teaches us that Mungo Park discovered the Niger. One which teachs that Mary Slessor helped or played a part in putting a stop to the killing of twins, rather than one which teaches that Mary Slessor as the saviour who singlehandendly put stopped the African barbarians from the killing of twins.
A proper Afrocentrist education will go a long way in riding Africa of the Mobutus, OBJs, the warlords and perverts.
A product of proper Afrocentrist education will not so easily grow up to steal money as a minister, abandon his homeland and take pride in stashing such abroad and then boasting about it.
A product of a proper Afrocentrist education will be reminded that the rule of law was a cornerstone of his history, culture and tradition. Such a one will not so easily cast aside and trample on the constitution of his country in modern times
A product of a proper Afrocentrist education will be reminded that he/she was an integral part of an integrated society which while having its flaws, was on the whole one which he/she couldn't just use and trample upon.
A product of a proper Afrocentrist education will understand that it is not beyond his reach and the reach of his people to easily build a virile, prosperous and productive society
I could go on and on but I'll stop there for now.
Afrocentrism and the technological and economic challenge:
I'm sure we mostly agree on the below:
*Nigeria and Africa has to move away from consumerism to production.
But how do we achieve this in a world that is telling us such nonsense as we don't need to produce anything if it is not to our "comparative advantage".
How do we move from consumerism to productiveness in a world full of time bombs,booby traps and testescular emasculators disguised beneficiantly as GATTs, WTOs and other loopsided agreements in which the Nigerian/African elites who remain uncommited to Afrocentrism are so eager to partake of?
An introduction of the Afrocentric economic agenda
In contrast to these crazy people we call leaders, the Afrocentrist understands what needs to be done and makes no appologies for doing it. The Afrocentrist is not beholden to any foreign influence, is not eager to "belong", is not desperate for any approval or acceptance by the "Paris club" and will ruthlessly and singlemindedly do what needs to be done for the betterment of his people.When your mind has been thoroughly disabused and prepared from youth to look out for your own interests it is hard for any "International community" to fool you with "Globalisation" or for you to succumb to temptation to be knighted by any Queen or to be taken in by any invitation to any house, be it White , Blue or Red.
People who will never open up thier own markets, people who don't listen to the IMF or World Bank will no longer be able to bamboozle you into opening up your markets for worthless trash such as mirrors,cigarette and whisky.
Hypocrites who will at the drop of a hat not hesitate to use State resources to shamelessly bail out thier own economies with untold amounts of dollars in "economic stimulus packages" and then turn around to ask African countries which have been suffering untold hardships for much longer not to do the same. Hypocrites who will throw out all thier fraudulent theories at the slightest hints of trouble in their own economy will no longer be able to tell you to remove "subsidies" and open your own markets and destroy whatever precious little industry that you have so they can dump their unwanted surpluses on you.
Afrocentricm will render one immune to the rantings of foreign governments who subsidise thier cows but refuse to open up their markets to African beans because it is "too curved"
Afrocentrism will help us clearly understand that protectionism is not a dirty word and is (and always has been) the path that emerging industries have to take. A healty dose of protectionism has to become accepted and must become a way of life for us.The bulk of Nigerian and African markets need to be closed as quickly as possible to competition from the "outside world".
In other words, since the world is not buying anything from us except our oil, we are pretty much immune from abiding by any nonsense of GATT, WTO , e.t.c and can afford to play by our own rules. We can effectively shut our markets to anything we want without fear of retaliation. What is there for them to retaliate against? We have no goods they can boycott.The only thing that is being bought from us is Oil which they are addicted . Nobody is buying our oil because they like us and nobody will stop buying this just because we impose tarrifs on goods we don't want to import or because we stop importation of goods we can produce albeit in inferior quality.
(As an aside, the other day, North Korea offered to sell Nigeria missile technology but the Nigerian government declined because of pressure from the American.
An Afrocentrically commited Nigerian governmnent could have done otherwise after deciding that such technology is in Nigeria's interest. Nigeria today may not be in position to lose billions of dollars if we had pursued acquisition of ballistic technnology from the Koreans, but a timid, clueless, government knows no such vision)
Technology , fueled by an Afrocentric ideology which understands the need for acquisition of technolgy will be the key and vehicle of development
How will Nigeria move away from consumption to production? Well, there are simple ways to do these. Already we have local technological and manufacturing enterprise in Nigeria which the Nigerian government can deliberately set out as a matter of priority to strenghten and encourage. The ways to do these are so obvious that I won't bother to explain save to say that it must be clearly understood and accepted that Nigerian local products will necessarily for a while be inferior in quality to the alternatives that can be obtained from the global markets. They will also be more expensive compared to the ones available from the global markets
Afrocentrist thought will help the consumer understand and accept the above. To one who is not interested in Afrocentricm, the foregoing will make no sense whatsoever and and he/she will inisist that he/she must operate a "free market policy", that he/she is part of a "global community " and other hogwash. Such a one will be talking in terms of classical economic theories of suppy and demand, lowest cost , classical psychology which doesn't adequately take into consideration the impact of ideological education on human behaviour e.t.c
What I will now go on to explain is how we can easily within a space of 5 to 15 year get that which we don't have, using a mix of pragmatism, what has been done before and what Afrocentrism can help us realize we can do- that is in the acquisition of "hi-tech"
a) The main thrust of the Nigerian government's technological acquisiton plan should not at first be to invite or look for foreign companies to set up shop in Nigeria, rather the government should go out and seek them out in their home countries then start with investing massively in targeted manufacturing and production companies which have the kind of technology Nigeria wants.
b)Nigerian goverment can start with Manufacturing - cars, drugs, electronics and most especially power plants:
The current financial crisis offers an opportunity though these opportunities have always been there, only we don't give a damn about taking them.
There are lots of small , medium and large hi-tec companies all over which will welcome investmens and the Nigeria can invest in the small to medium sized ones, virtually buy its way into whatever firm it wants. After establishing a foothold in dozens of targeted companies, we can then graudally start expanding our interest in some of the ones which appear viable and ammenable to our goals, gradually filling its ranks with Nigerians who will over time understudy and understand the entire technical and buisness operations and when the time is right, buy the entire operation including its supplie chains, down to the most mundane details such as floor plans , machinery. Over time, and after such companies are well understood, Nigeria can close them down, ship the entire factory to Nigeria and replicate its operation there.
I rest for now... I have to go attend to some other things but I don't really know what all this writing will achieve.
Those who don't want to accept these things will find perfectly logical and reasonable arguments not to.
god bless you
This is a rather unfortunate statement from you. It's like you believe that if I question your assertion, it's because I don't like what you've said, rather than because I want to ensure there are no weaknesses.
Since you don't really want to discuss the matter, I'll leave you be.
I agree that there will always be some among us (in the majority now) who are eternally against changing the status quo or pondering over the articulate and glaring alternatives that have been offered.
I fail to see what is wrong with having an Afrocentric or uniquely Africa-focused ideology/narrative as a building block/corner-stone of how we approach things, others. What is wrong with pursuing our own self-interest first? My take is that people will respect us more if we do, things will be clearer.
Presently, we simply copying verbatim what the 'west' dubiously dishes out claiming it to be an 'experts' report based on flawed scientific evidences, lately, they have being adding the names of brainwashed Africans to list of authors/sponsors of such skewed ideology, available in your local libraries.
Shoko, please ponder over what Deepthought reproduced above and highlight the areas ou disagree with, perhaps we can start laying down the foundation for "the alternatives".
I think you misunderstand me. I welcome questions from you and from most people on this forum...and I wasn't directing that at you. I should have clarified that
But there are also many people out there who are closed to reasoning on certain issues and I know who they are and hardly engage in any serious discourse with such.
I answered your question precisely because I believe you are sincere in your post. Otherwise I wouldn't have bothered if I though you weren't.
Let me hasten to add that I being human have to admit that I also suffer from this flaw. (....of having a closed mind on some things ) For example, no matter how many books certain people write, no matter how much statistic certain quaters quote, I will never be convinced that I or mine have low IQ
So I'm sure that for certain category of people , nothing writen by some dirty "afrocentrists "will convince them that Afrocentrism has anything to offer them.
And I can live with that.
Sorry - it appears I did misunderstand you. I do appreciate that you took a lot of time and trouble to post your response, which is why I was puzzled that you appeared not to be willing to discuss it.
I'll be back to offer detailed questions and comments over a period of time, but one initial question is - why label this idea an Afrocentrist idea? Is it really dissimilar from any other idea which aims to advance the interest of a group that does not have much power in world affairs, except that in this case, the group is the African people?
In other words, if you replaced 'Afrocentrist' and 'Afrocentrism' with Latinocentrist' and 'Latinocentrism', would the ideology work for people from Latin America?
I didn't label myself an Afrocentrist on this NVS.Until recently, I wasn't even aware I could be considered one till certain people started calling me one!
So you're quite right, I don't think these ideas need to be called Afrocentric at all, rather they are just what I regard as obvious and simple commonsensical ideas which shouldn't require much (if any!) effort to comprehend. But I guess maybe people want to use labels for convinience or for whatever other purposes and I have no problems wearing the Afrocentric label.
Yes it would.
I think the Latinos are already well on thier way to implementing these ideas.
First of all let me say that it would be impossible to provide a fully fleshed developmental model in bullet points. My thoughts are specifically directed towards the Nigerian economy, as the first premise for any alternative to Afropessimism is to recognise structural and economic differences between the African nations (all African nations are not identical). I do not seek to provide flowery, 'high falutin' rhetoric; in fact I am seeking to escape from the superficiality which dominates orthodox economics. I'm not sure if anyone here appreciates the extent of the problem - at the moment, 99 percent of economists are trained in a method, ideology and policy framework that is as hegemonic as it is homogenising (this cuts across all races). The understanding of society, history, and politics is at best limited, and there is an extreme reliance on abstract mathematical models to make policy recommendations without engaging with the contradictions of the real world. You could say that the major preoccupation is with the methodological proof and not the subject matter. Based on this I am not convinced that economic policy should be left to economists alone (lol).
I do not see 'capitalism' and 'socialism' as sacrosanct concepts. Between both extremes is a broad spectrum of alternatives which we must consider. Due to the peculiarities of nigerian society, we will never be purely capitalist or socialist. The most attractive option would be a combination of etatism (state intervention) and strategic liberalisation (private ownership in identified 'growth accelerating' economic sectrs), within a broad context of managed globalisation (i.e. the engagement between Nigeria and the rest of the world, using the economic and political needs of Nigeria as a focal point). We must also accept that the most successful countries in Africa, Botswana and Mauritius pursued a state-led development strategy that countered the advice of the IMF, World Bank and every leading economist.
There are several specific constraints of underdevelopment in Nigeria (by no means an exhaustive listing);
-Autarchy is not a feasible option for any peripheral economy which is a price taker in international markets, due to the level of dependence on primary activity (oil and gas exports are around 99 percent of total exports and 85 percent of state revenues).
-Technological transfer is constrained by global rules (such as TRIPS), and the oligopolistic structure of the largest industries which lock-in poor countries in a subservient position. The oil majors rely on foreign capital and labour in critical aspects of their operations, though Nigerians occupy administrative and low to medium level technical positions.
-Acute material deprivation, poor infrastructure, capital scarcity and low technical capacity which constrain the development of an autonomous indigenous bourgeoisie. Productive activities are concentrated in commercial and 'rentier' activities, while foreign capital controls strategic industries. Preference for 'joint ventures' which reduce the risk burden of domestic capitalists.
-The unfinished project of the nation-state - the state is not autonomous, it exists as a site for personal aggrandisement, and the failure of social provisioning weakens its legitimacy while undermining the organisational apparatuses (such as the bureaucracy and security agencies). The ability of the state to act as an intermediator in the development process is constrained by these factors, as well as the politicisation of ethnicity and religion in Nigeria.
However, there are several subtle features of the Nigerian situation which are not sufficiently recognised in the conventional analyses.
- The existence of independent capital-accumulating networks not driven by rentier, comprador motives. There is evidence of technical upgrading in several local industries including - agro-allied processing, breweries, textiles, metals fabrication, sawmilling, plastics processing. These changes occurred over the 1980s, and in the past five years, agriculture and manufacturing have grown at over 7 percent pa.
- The 'parallel' economy - Due to exchange rate arbitrage, many domestic manufacturers sell their products in regional markets, particularly the CFA zone. Petty commodity manufacturing, petty trading and traditional credit/lending are at the heart of the informal sector, but not sufficiently recognised in official statistics on GDP and output. If we were to incorporate these informal activities in official GDP, the proportion of non-oil output and exports would increase tenfold.
- The emergence of embryonic industrial capital - driven by the Nigerian diaspora. The most obvious impact is in the telecomms sector (growing at over 30 percent pa since liberalisation), and financial services. There is strong evidence of intra-sectoral linkages, technical upgrading, and strategic investments in privatised state enterprises. The constraints of poor education and skills, unproductive (rentier) accumulation, capital scarcity and risk aversion have been circumvented by the increasing role of the diaspora. However, this may raise ethnic tensions as the Northern dominated state structure is increasingly overshadowed by Southern (private) enterprenuership.
- Intensification at disaggregated levels - several states have proved to be adept at increasing agricultural production, investing in infrastructure, healthcare and social services, and providing a measure of stability for private investment (e.g. Cross River, Bauchi, Ogun). The growth of cashew nuts and groudnuts exports has been driven by specific policies of the Kano state government. Emergence of landed aristocracy (esp in the North) and technical upgrading in agrarian production. The critical factor for success here is political will and commitment.
I do not seek to romanticise the plight of many poor Nigerians, and ignore the rapaciousness of the state. These are realities that we must grapple with. However, we must not accept external interpretations of the nature of capitalism in Nigeria benignly. If there is evidence of nascent improvements in agrarian activities, industrial production, technical capacity and factor productivity, we must draw on these elements.
What is needed to complement and reinforce these elements is a national redistributive program aimed at investments in infrastructure (power, roads, rail/maritime transport), skills acquisition, microcredit for small businesses, reasonable wages/salaries and worker protection, and subsidised education and healthcare provision.
The unfolding crisis in global capitalism also affords more maneouvrability and policy space for the state, in identifying new markets in West and East Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Tariffs and other trade policy instruments must be tailored towards creating dynamic comparative advantages, acquiring production technology, and building political alliances with other developing countries for the protection and advancement of a common interest. The burden of implementing such a strategy may be less than we expect, due to the prior existence of political, economic and trading links, and for all its contradictions, Nigeria still enjoys some credibility among other countries in the South.
The final factor is the imperativeness of political-legal reforms, aimed at strengthening the electoral process, protecting rights to private property, balancing the needs of Nigeria's 374 ethnic groups within the polity, and non-selective enforcement of state rules and policies. I am not convinced on the suitability of an American style presidential system for Nigeria and devolution of powers to the states, as this has only decentralised corruption and magnified the crisis of citizenship and statehood. Pre-colonial forms of authority and social conduct (e.g. neopatrimonialism) have also become deeply inured in the Nigerian psyche. The point here again, is to examine the most feasible system of political organisation that suits our context.
These are all the thoughts swirling around in my head (lol), and while they may be rejected by some here as 'high falutin' or naiive, I believe that the first step to overcoming our economic problems is to recognise the subtleties and nuances that may be overlooked by traditional analyses on Nigeria.
DT and Shoko,
The label 'Afrocentric' is not simply for convenience, it provides an ideological basis for countering orthodox narratives on development. Also, other regions in the South (e.g. Latin America) have different constraints from the African nations. One of the most obvious differences is the level of technological backwardness and the degree of dependence on foreign capital in Africa. In this regard, the capital and technological requirements for industrialisation are higher in Africa, and the degree of autonomy of the indigenous capitalist class is lower than in Latin America.
I may not be back here soon to follow the debate, but I'll try and do so once time permits. I sincerely hope that this thread is not a wasted effort, and does not degenerate into the gratuituous abuse and defamation that plagues the NVS.
thoughts on the current gloal crisis
the future that i see is bleak,
1.i see a breakdown of world trade,
2. i see a lesser emphasis on industrialisation
3. i see a multipolar world without the balance of power concentrated anywhere
4. i see a restructuring in china
5. i see a devaluation of western currencies against other currencies
1. free trade as we know it is going to break down, this whole idea that the west somehow will be able to receive products from developing countries with cheap labour is not sustainable. in the short term since the industrialisation of china and india , it actually seemed like an alternative.
wages in the real terms did not go up in the west but western consumers felt they had more money in their pockets as a result of products made in china which were cheap the problem with this model is that china was not static in terms of technological advancement. from low end technology , it was advancing to high end technology with the same competitive advantange of low wages /cheap products. at some point it will not be economcial to produce anything including services in the west and anything that could be outsourced was outsourced.
the danger in this is that it has the capability of undermining the economy of the west. the controllers of means of production preferred to move production to china because not only was it cheaper , more products were sold and even more profits were made than when production was in the home country. there is the inherent danger of producing in china , wages would remain low until optimal untilisation of labour was achieved , the danger in this is that china is roughly a quarter of humanity and the consuming quarter( the west ) will never be able to raise wages in china as their demands would be met but optimal labour utilisation not achieved.
in the end , most western nations will have to assume protectionist stands in order to protect their citizens from poverty as effective employment remains the only known way to protect whole populations from poverty.
obama took this stands in his election and we shall brace to see the gradual dismantling of world trade apparatus to enable production in the home countries with a view of keeping people employed.
2 deindustrialisation will have to occur , this is because with technological advancement and industrialisation , less people and more machines are required for production , the effect of this is that at optimal utilisation of labour, china will be producing far more than the entire globe needs, so industrialisation was only effective only so far as there were no industrialised markets. so even if the credit crunch had not happened , if the industrialisation of china had continued, at some point it will saturate the world with goods and products no one wants or is capable of buying.
this assumption is based on the fact that any closed system requires only 25 % of its labour to produce all its needs. so if production exceeds more 25% of the total labour on the globe , over production occurs.so if india starts producing like china the planet will be saturated with products for which there is no market.
3. with industrial capacity in china , india , brazil , and russia , it is just a matter of time before the west is overtaken as a centre of power as a result of installed functional industrial capacity. effectively aiding these countries is the lack of a so called leisurely/freedom welfare culture which encourages laziness and discourages hardwork. it is for this reason that the west constantly needs invigoration through the infusion of large numbers of immigrants.
4. china will have to restructure at some point for it is producing at 140 percent overcapacity , which means that it needs another country of 1.5 times its own purchasing power and size if its to remain in prduction should its external markets be shut down. even today with just tremours in global markets , china's factories is shutting down and laying off workers. the model it runs now is lending the west money to buy its products , this is extremely dangerous for the west. as when the debt gets too much its currencies will collapse and china will effectively buy everything it owns that is of value including the very top end technology.
if china restructures, it will be forced to encourage its citizens to start consuming in other to keep everybody employed and happy , this will involve the abandoning of the philosophy that has served asia so well " high export , high savings". at this point either the communist party takes over the econoomy to enforce socialism, or the the same chaos in the west will happen in china.
5. western currencies willl collapse against other world currencies this will enable industrial productivity to produce products that can compete with china to an extent , without this the west cannot produce anything anyone except themselves can buy.
to be continued