The Imminent Apocalypse In Damascus!
- Post 27 June 2012
- Last Updated on 27 June 2012
- By SOC Okenwa
The embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was not destined for leadership greatness, global statesmanship or great political character from birth! Born on the 11th September 1965 Assad graduated from the medical school of the University of Damascus in 1988 and started to work as a doctor in the Syrian Army under his late father. Four years later however he attended post-graduate studies at the Western Eye Hospital in London, the UK, specializing in ophthalmology. His late father was known to have been secretly grooming Bashar's elder brother Bassel al-Assad as the future President. And when the unexpected happened with the untimely death in an auto crash of Bassel Bashar was recalled in 1994 to the Syrian army as the undisputed new heir-apparent.

Through an unopposed referendum in 2000 President Assad was chosen to succeed his father and since then he had organized two sham presidential 'polls' in which he had been returned to power unopposed. You can call his rise to power after his father's death as something similar to what is happening in any monarchy in the wider world. And back home in Africa we have seen this kind of succession manifesting themselves even under a 'normal' civilian dictatorships: Joseph Kabila taking over from his late father, Laurent, when the fat rebel leader who gained power after deposing the late kleptocrat Mobutu Sese-Seko in Congo-Kinshasa was assassinated and Faure Gnassingbe succeeding his father, Eyadema, after the despot kicked the bucket in early 2005.
The late Assad ran Syria as a glorified 'King' for more than three decades. And belonging to a minority called Alawites -- a small, historically-beleaguered ethnic group -- Assad used both intimidation and ruthlessness to maintain his iron-grip on power with the majority Sunnis kept at bay. Today those waging war of regime change in furtherance of the Arab Spring are known to be mainly the Sunnis who want to control their destinies after decades of political oppression by the Assads.
Damascus, the sprawling capital city of Syria is more than a thousand years old! The old city is comparable only to Jerusalem in Israel, Alexandria in Egypt and Thessalonica in Greece in terms of ancient and modern survival of cities dating back to millenia BC. It remains one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world and a major cultural and religious center. Damas is synonymous with biblical references before, during and after the death and crucifixion of our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ.
Damascus notably was the 'sin' city where many ancient followers of Christ were prosecuted and persecuted. Notably, the persecutor-in-chief of Christians, Saul, was heading towards the city to carry out massacre of more Christians when the Almighty Jehovah intervened gloriously blinding him and consequently miraculously turning him away from sin and transforming him into a new being with a new name: Apostle Paul! That biblically-documented encounter with a lightening rod, the resurrected Christ, was a striking supernatural demonstration of divine power, one from which a quote was attributed to Jehovah Himself. The Maker of man was quoted as having proclaimed: "Saul! Saul!! Why are you kicking against the prick?!"
Syria, as a country, is hugely important and influential in both the Arab world and the Middle East. Damascus is known to be anti-Israel sponsoring terrorists who undermined the internal security of the Jewish state, from Lebanon-based Hizbollah to the Palestine-based Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The provocation got to a stage where one Israeli hawkish Prime Minister at a time sternly warned the current Syrian leader that in the event of a full-blown war he would not only lose the war within intervening minutes he would also be forced out of power and constrained to flee into exile against his wish! Apart from Syria another enemy of the Jewish state happens to be Iran.
Archaeologists of repute have demonstrated incontrovertibly that civilization in Syria was one of the most ancient on earth. The old country has passed through many empires over time from the Persians to the Macedonians, from the Romans to the Byzantines. From the Mongols to the Ottomans. It is a country with rich history indeed: a past fraught with occupation by foreign forces and the present looking very bleak with a creeping civil war in the horizon!
However the modern Syria as we know it today could be said to have been established under the French Mandate in 1941, and when the French beat a negociated retreat the country was thrown into political instability during the 1950s and 60s leading to the Baath Arab nationalist party eventually ascending to power in the bloody coup d'etat of 1963. In another coup of 1970, Hafez al-Assad took power within the Baath party. Syria was ruled autocratically by Assad from 1970 to the year 2000 when he succumbed to death. And soon after his demise he was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad.
The Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and now Syria has consumed about three sitting dictators. In Tunisia where it all began ex-President Ben Ali had no option left but to flee for his dear life after the revolution reached a critical stage of non-return. Today Tunisia is making some progress with new leaders in power. The Arab Spring revolution soon crossed over to Cairo Egypt where ex-dictator Hosni Mubarak was holding sway for decades. Today, after being swept from power, he stands condemned and in prison as his health deteriorates and the protesters calling for his execution! Just yesterday a new President, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, was named as the winner of the presidential election.
In Libya the late tyrant Muammar Ghaddafi was defiant to the last minute. He was caught by the rebels inside a waste pipe and butchered to death after employing whatever was left of his 42-year reign of terror to keep himself and his family in power. However in his case the United States and France (and NATO) played key roles in dismantling the Ghaddafi weapons of mass destruction. Bombing his forces and command and control centers out of effectiveness the oppressed Libyans soon found their courage and voices as they battled the remnants of the tyranny conquering Tripoli after weeks and months of protracted battles. Today in spite of security lapses here and there Libya is becoming a democratic entity ruled by democrats!
Against this background the disgusting daily images of terror, regime-sponsored violence, unconscionable level of brutality going on in Damascus and other Syrian cities has provoked global condemnations and sanctions against the Assad regime with the Obama administration maintaining rigidly that regime change was inevitable. Without any iota of doubt Assad is running a government of brutality and duplicity. Syria will not, cannot be peaceful, stable or certainly democratic until Assad goes.
The appalling use of excessive force to put down a civil revolt cannot work in the long run. Russia and China, which wield vetoes in the U.N. Security Council have blocked any prospects of tougher action against Assad. Without their consent in the UN Security Council nothing appears to suggest that anything will be done outside the UN mandate or resolution authorizing the use of force against the murderous regime in Damascus. Russia has been the staunchest backer of Assad and his military crackdown against militants and protesters in Syria, including supplying arms to the Syrian government.
While President Putin and his government in Moscow insist on "political dialogue" for the resolution of a protracted crisis cum sectarian conflict President Obama has said times without number that Assad has lost all legitimacy insisting logically that it was practically impossible to conceive of any solution to the violence in Syria that leaves him in power. The ignoble role being played by Russia and China while openly supporting the failed Kofi Annan's diplomatic efforts rankles millions of democrats worldwide who daily express social solidarity to the Syrian democratic cause.
The positive role being played by Turkey coupled with the principal roles of the US, France, UK and the Arab League and nations like Saudi Arabia and Quatar must be recognised here and lauded. The Russian continuing provision of armaments and weapons to the embattled regime must be condemned in strongest terms. Why is Russia and China not playing progressive politics with the outside democratic world? It could be that their material interest(s) far outwiegh the moral need to be fair and just in a complex world. Again, given the kind of 'soft dictatorships' the two nations run at home it is easy to understand their reticence and negativism whenever democracy is challenged anywhere in the world.
Presidents Vladmir Putin and Hu Jintao must bear certain responsibility for what is the gory state of Syria today. The blood of thousands of innocent Syrians bombed and killed in cold-blood is crying for vengeance! And vengeance they must get in the fullest of time.
There is an emergency in Syria and the Assad killing machine assaulting decency and democracy must be disabled much like the global coalition successfully demobilized the killing machine of the late dictator Muammar Ghaddafi in Libya. Bashar al-Assad's regime has become a killing machine, well-oiled to decimate a population seeking for a new dawn. The deteriorating security situation on the ground calls for a co-ordinated response by a global coalition like the one used in stopping the Ghaddafi ticking 'bomb' in Libya.
The global concerted military intervention in Syria is long overdue! And the democratic powers in the Western world led by the United States cannot continue watching and applying diplomacy when Assad has evidently become mad and uncontrollable. Whilst the opinions of Russia and China will always count we cannot afford to wait on them or their approval before something drastic a measure is done to halt the Assad madness in Damascus. And if the multi-national military intervention is ruled out (due mainly to strategic and diplomatic encumberances) then the alternative lies in supplying weapons and other armaments to the Free Syrian Army to defend the masses and wage war against the Assad ruthless forces.
Assad's bloody 15-month crackdown on the local opposition which the outside observers put the conservative death toll at more than 15,000 and still counting must be halted. But the uprising is not abating; rather, Syrians are more determined as more women, children and demonstrators struggling to end the Assad sad era in their collective lives are daily killed in crude ways. From all indications, it is clear that Assad, blinded by ego and power, is determined to destroy his late father's legacy; what his late father laboured to construct in decades while in power lie in ruins. When the boom of guns, bombs and artillery fire die down historians will remember Assad as that dictator who brought down upon himself the edifice built by his late father!
The approaching apocalypse in Damascus must sweep Assad from power for Syrians to re-discover their humanities again. And before that imminent armaggedon descends on the forces of evil led by Assad (putting defenseless civilians to grief) we hereby urge the brave Syrians demonstrating against odds to keep the hope alive and keep the democratic flame burning! Freedom will be their reward soon enough!! A-luta Continua!!!
SOC Okenwa
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Are you serious??? Assad brutal kill kill 15,000 Assad, kill kill, peaceful opposition Assad kill kill. Are you serious? Do you really believe the things you typed, or like a robot you simply copied them from some MSM website and dumped it here for intelligent Nigerians. Are you paid to do this? I sure hope u are. Cuz u are doing a job for uneducated readers, here u get laughed at. There is no peaceful opposition or tyranny. Like saying- peaceful Boko. By its nature, Boko can not be peaceful and nor can the tyranny against Syria's established government. I guess you missed the part where Clinton admitted US was working with AlQaeda, once again in Syria: Clinton on BBC: "Alqaeda, Hamas supporting Syria opposition." A team with USA Picking up guns and killing innocent government troops and citizens is not peace is not democracy it is terror. And I guess by your count, the terrorist opposition have killed none right. Like with Libya, we now have terror of scary proportion spreading round Africa up to Nigeria. The NATO "liberated" Libya Terror "tidal wave" over North Africa Your type let terrorists take hold of Libya. Now Mali has already fallen to them and as General Ham of AFRICOM(will never come) said yesterday, Mali thanks to ya MSM supported NATO ouster of Ghaddafi is free terror breeding ground. So thanks to your type, Libya is a terrorist state, from being a main Africa regional stabilizer....and now Mali is a terrorist Nation and these terrorists are helping to destroy Nigeria. African Extremist Groups, Boko, Shabaab, AQIM, Linking up: U.S. AFRICOM General And u are not tired, you still wish to do the same, hand over Syria a main Mid East stabilizer to terrorists so the Middle East can fall into full chaos. Yeah, Assad kill kill kill. That is how ya BBC was exposed last month fabricating images of kill kill kill, so desperate they used Iraq images of years ago as happening by Assad's hand now. BBC uses fake photo of old Iraq massacre for Houla Syria massacre'; Propaganda for NATO war? You are a joke and a pathetic one at that. Gosh! QUOTE:
Supes Supes! You knew I'd pop out of my hole once you started with the lies again. 1. When did Clinton admit that the US was working with AlQaeda? I watched your clip. All she said was that there was a dangerous situation in Syria because while the US was on the side of the rebels, listed terrorist groups were also making the same claim, and this was a source of worry for the average Syrian because no one knew how the end game was going to turn out. She NEVER said the US was working wit Al Qaeda. Stop with these petty lies, please. 2. Regarding the 'fabricated picture' of dead children, the BBC said they clearly put a disclaimer on the report that they cannot verify the accuracy of the information submitted to them, so readers should bear that in mind. They also issued a sincere apology, even though the picture wasn't up on their site for more than 90 MINUTES. QUOTE:
2015!!! I'm still waiting for News Rescue to publish an apology for using that badly photoshopped image of the Nzeogwu/Sardauna St. George Bread that you claimed gave the Hausa's justification for the commencement of a pogrom against the Christian Igbos.
Since I have notin better to do.
1. So US and Alqaeda and Hamas on the same side, all working with Syrian terrorists does not make them team? OK. Untill as happened in Libya, Alqaeda flagh is again hoisted ontop Syria court houses, and terror spills uncontrollably in the ME as is now in North and West Africa, thanks to Ghaddafi's ousting, then u will be happy. Mumuni. 2. BBC only removed it when the actual photographer facebook commented about WTH! was going on here. 3. U get thyme. QUOTE:
1. I'm not debating politics with you Supes, just exposing your lies. Clinton did not say the US is working with Al Qaeda. Don't say she did when you know she didn't. In the real world, facts are still different from biased opinion. 2. Correct. The mistake was brought to the BBC's attention, then a decision was taken to remove it. And all that happened in 90 MINUTES. Bravo BBC. Still waiting for News Rescue's apology for similarly putting up fake pictures. 3. You neva hear say this na my other work? 2015!!!
1. OK, so taking from US policy, GWBUshit: U are either with us or against us. Clinton must have said they were working against Alqaeda in Syria, hence supporting Al Assad's government.
QUOTE:
Quick lesson in international relations: Clinton doesn't work for, or speak for GW Bush, or the Republicans. She's a Democrat, and her Boss is Obama. I have no idea why you're talking about what Bush, a man who's oratory talent is rivalled only by GEj's, may or may not have said. So don't say "this is what she said", when you really mean "this is what we'd like her to say". 2015!!! Just walk away, boss. You lied, I exposed it. You know the routine.
Let me ask you.
Are the US working same side with Alqaeda, as she said, or opposite side, against Alqaeda in Syria. 2. How's that:
Bros,
I'm not debating politics or sociology, I'm just saying (and I've proven) that you made a false claim. All you need to do, for your benefit and ours, is be a little more thorough when you research stuff. That's all. 2015!!! And regarding your CIA/FBI/Interpol/Al Qaeda creation, this Donkee don't do conspiracy theories. Sorry.
Let me ask you.
Are the US working same side with Alqaeda, as she said, or opposite side, against Alqaeda in Syria.
I didn't know anyone was interested. Here is a recent piece I wrote on the subject.
The U.S., Russia and Syria One of the most frustrating aspects of the media coverage of the current civil disturbances in Syria is that there is a dearth of 'joined-up' thinking behind most of the analyses. There is a lot of eye-witness reporting of events in the country as well as a litany of political opportunism by politicians pressing their own self-serving analyses of the Syrian events. The most important problem is that each aspect of the evaluation of the impact of the Syrian crisis is treated as a discreet problem and unrelated in any meaningful sense with the 'bigger picture'. Governments are not able or willing to deal with one problem at a time. They are caught up in a whirlpool of demands and pressures from a wide variety of challenges, domestic and international, which require action or intervention or even neglect. More importantly these challenges are almost always inter-related. For example, it is impossible for the West to have a position on Syria which does not take into account the difficulties with Russia and China in the Security Council and with the Russian military presence in Syria. While it is possible to speak of a uniform Western response to the killings and destruction in Syria it is not possible to then deduce from that a uniform Western response to Russia, Iran, Hizbollah and the Sunni-Shia split which this Syrian conflict encompasses. Viewing the day to day news clips about Russian helicopters, artillery bombardments of Syrian cities and explosions in the capital, Damascus, makes it possible to cast a moral vote against these atrocities. However, moral votes have never been a good guide for policy. There are usually good, rational (even if 'immoral') reasons why events happen. Unless the reasons why such 'evil' policies are pursued are understood then no response can be effective or appropriate. Assessing the motives on the Syrian side is, perhaps, the easiest. The Assad clique which runs Syria is Alawi; a minority group within the Syrian state. They are followers of an Ismaili belief system that incorporates aspects of both Shi'a and Sunni Islam and some Christian beliefs; Alawis celebrate Christmas, Easter, and Epiphany. In fact the Turkish Alevi (a Turkish variant) maintain that they are not Muslims as all. The majority Sunni communities agree and view the Alawi as largely a cultural group rather than a heterodox Muslim sect. The Sunni ordered them to build mosques, but no one worshipped there so they were abandoned. Because many of the tenets of the faith are secret, Alawis have refused to discuss their faith with outsiders. Only an elect few learn the religion after a lengthy process of initiation; youths are initiated into the secrets of the faith in stages. Their prayer book, the source of religious instruction, is the Kitab al Majmu, believed to be derived from Ismaili writings. The Alawis, of whom there are about 1,350,000 in Syria and Lebanon, constitute Syria's largest religious minority. They are often called by other names as well - they have been called Nusayris, Nusairis, Namiriya or Ansariyya. They live chiefly along the coast in Al Ladhiqiyah Province, where they form over 60 present of the rural population. For several centuries, the Alawis enjoyed autonomy within the Ottoman Empire, but, in the mid-nineteenth century, the Ottomans imposed direct rule. Regarding the Alawis as infidels, the Ottomans consistently persecuted them and imposed heavy taxation on them. During the French Mandate, the Alawis briefly gained territorial autonomy, but direct rule was re-imposed in 1936. For centuries, the Alawis constituted Syria's most repressed and exploited minority. Most were indentured servants and tenant farmers or sharecroppers working for Sunni landowners. Because of their outcast status, many government jobs were off-limits to them and they never prospered in business. They were able to mobilise themselves out of their rural setting by joining the Army. They rose in the ranks and were the key elements in the Syrian Baath Party. The other Baath Party was in Iraq and the two main branches of the Baath Party controlled both Iraq and Syria for nearly forty years. The Arabic word baath means "resurrection" or "renaissance." The party had its origins in the desire of Syrian secular Arab nationalists to break with their feudal past and to create a new form of government for Arab countries. The Baath Party was officially founded in 1947 and sought to create a secular and socialist culture in Arab countries. The Baath Party was able to establish itself in Syria in 1954. The Baath Party established itself in Iraq in 1963. In Syria, Hafez Assad originally led the party which was dominated by the Alawi (about 12% of the Syrian nation) and supported by the network of Alawi in the army and the national intelligence establishment. In Iraq, Baath had trouble holding on to power; but by the late 1960s, the Baath was in full control, and Saddam Hussein was running the party. That created a problem, however, as both Assad and Hussein insisted that their branch of the party was running the international Baath movement. The two men could not agree on who was in charge, and became bitter enemies. The Iraqi Baathists were almost exclusively Sunni while Syrian Baathists were primarily Alawi. When Saddam was deposed in 2003, many senior Iraqi Baath Party members fled to Syria, and made peace with the Syrian branch of the party but remained politically isolated. Bashar Assad had taken over in Syria when his father died in 2000. Bashar had not been groomed to run the country, but instead trained as an eye doctor. However, his older brother, the heir apparent, died in an accident, and it was up to Bashar to keep things together and to resist the dynastic ambitions of his uncle, Rifaat, who would have preferred to be Hafez's successor. Rifaat was capable of amazing deeds of violence. On 27 June 1980, a day after a failed attempt to assassinate his brother, Syrian president Hafez al-Assad, military units under the command of Rifaat al-Assad, the president's brother, entered into Palmyra prison and killed thousands of inmates. During the Syrian occupation of Lebanon Rifaat was the kingpin in the illicit trade in narcotics. He was, and remains, a serious aspirant for Bashar's job and a man whom many fear. The Syrian Alawi Baathists, after their takeover of the Syrian state, soon gave up any notion of Arab socialism and became a corrupt police state. In 1982 Hafez Assad banned all other political parties except the Baath. He had them ruthlessly dissolved; their leaders killed or subject to involuntary exile. The free press of Syria was outlawed. The only newspapers that were allowed into circulation were official Baath papers. The majority Sunni people of Syria (including the large Druze and Kurdish communities) grew unhappy with these turns of events. A new political party was formed; the Muslim Brotherhood. This Muslim Brotherhood attracted a lot of support from unhappy Syrians, most Sunni (and with some support from Egypt). The Muslim Brotherhood embarked upon a program to overthrow Assad. They made their presence known with demonstrations and protest marches and soon gathered a lot of support. In response, Hafez Assad deployed his army to make such an example of the Muslim Brotherhood that no man would ever dare challenge his rule again. One centre of opposition was the city of Hama. Hafez Assad decided that Hama would be the staging point of the example he was to make to the Syrian people. In the twilight hours of February the 2nd, 1982, the city of Hama was awakened by loud explosions. The Syrian air force began to drop their bombs on the city. The initial bombing run cost the city only a few casualties. Its main purpose had been to disable the roads so that no-one could escape. Earlier in the night, Syrian tanks and artillery systems had surrounded Hama. With the conclusion of the air bombing run, the tanks and artillery began their relentless shelling of the town. Thousands died. As homes crumbled upon their living occupants and the smell of charred skin filled the streets, a few residents managed to escape the shelling and started to flee. They were met by the Syrian army under Rifaat Assad which had surrounded the city; they were all shot dead. The artillery barrage was followed by waves of Syrian soldiers. They quickly converged onto the town killing anything that moved. Groups of soldiers rounded up men, women, and children only to shoot them in the back of the head. After the majority of the people in Hama were dead, the soldiers began looting. They took all that they could from the now empty homes. Some were seen picking through the dead civilians looking for money, watches, and rings. Finally the soldiers withdrew. The final horror was yet to come. To make sure that no person was left alive in the rubble and buildings, the Syrian army brought in poison gas generators. Cyanide gas filled the air of Hama. Bulldozers were later used to turn the city into a giant flat area. The lessons of the Hama Massacre were not lost on the Syrian population and an already deep dissatisfaction with the Alawi grew deeper. These are exactly the same tactics being used in the destruction of 'rebel' Syrian towns today. The methods are the same; the aims are the same; and the denials are identical. Hafez Assad wrote the playbook and his sons and nephews are following his example. It was this same group of unrestrained and vicious military leaders who marched into Lebanon with the Syrian Army and occupied the Lebanon as a protectorate in 1976. Assad wanted to prevent Lebanese sectarian warfare from spilling over into Syria and had to be certain that Lebanon maintained a unified front with Syria in any negotiations with Israel, especially after 1979. As Syria has very little resources, Lebanon provided a free trade zone and a place to extort money and sell drugs. They did not want to leave the Lebanon. This is why no one had any doubts that it was the Syrians who assassinated Raafik Hariri, the Lebanese prime Minister, or blew up several journalists. The Syrians were forced to leave the Lebanon by the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of 2 September 2004. They left behind a well-organised Lebanese militia force operating in Lebanon in defiance of Resolution 1559 — the Hezbollah (God's Party). The Hezbollah were funded, guided and supplied from Iran through the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) with the direct help of the Syrians. Iran created the Hizbollah after Israeli troops stormed into Beirut in 1982. Initially trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the group continues to receive extensive funding and weapons from Tehran, including the arsenal of more than 13,000 short- and medium-range rockets and missiles which are frequently used to attack Israel. The Hezbollah are essentially Shia, living in the southern suburbs of Beirut and as militia soldiers in South Lebanon from which the Israelis withdrew after an 18 year occupation. There are less than 60% of the Lebanese who are Muslims of any kind (Shia, Sunni, Druze, Isma'ili, Alawi or Nusayri), and almost 40% Christian (Maronite Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Melkite Catholic, Armenian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic, Armenian Catholic, Syrian Orthodox, Roman Catholic, Chaldean, Assyrian, Copt, or Protestants). The Shia are less than 20% of the population. Israel is not the only enemy of Syria. The overwhelmingly Sunni Al Qaida organisations see the Alawi as Muslim heretics, socialists and worthy of death, particularly as Syria has been an ally of Shia Iran. Now the Sunni leaders (mainly Wahhabi Muslims) of Qatar and Saudi Arabia have pressed forward to offer the Syrian 'rebels' arms, cash and support. These are delivered primarily through Turkey which has a long border with Syria. Turkey, too, is a Muslim country, now under the religious-based AKP party. Turks are also Sunnis but follow the Hanafi school of Islamic law. The Sunni Kurds follow the Shafii school. The Druze, like the Alawi, have a very secretive religious organisation, deriving primarily from the Ismaili wing of Islam. They are also considered a cult but have usually been closer to the Sunni while maintaining their identity. It is clear that the majority Sunni states have decided to openly support the Sunni groups in Syria; those who have borne the brunt of the killings and destruction The rebel fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) have received multiple shipments of arms including Kalashnikov assault rifles, BKC machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank weaponry which were transported into Syria via Turkey. The Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı (MİT - the Turkish national intelligence organisation)) is in charge of this distribution as well as in the erection maintenance and control of refugee camps along the Syrian border. On the other hand there is a very large Russian naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus; established under a 1971 agreement with Syria, which is still staffed by Russian naval personnel. The base supports the Russian Navy's fleet in the Mediterranean Sea. During the 1970s, similar support points were located in Alexandria and Mersa Matruh, Egypt and Latakia, Syria. In 1977 the Egyptian bases were closed and the vessels moved to Tartus. The Russian Navy designates the base at Tartus the 720th Logistics Support Point. In 1991, the Russians pulled back most of their foreign bases and wiped out their 5th Mediterranean Squadron. The remaining base at Tartus was made part of the Black Sea Fleet (in the Crimea). It is not really a base for fighting naval battles' it has three floating docks of which one is operational, a floating workshop, storage facilities, barracks and other facilities. Recently there have been visits to Tartus of a number of Russian vessels, including the Russian navy's aircraft carrier Kuznetsov and several submarines. Observers have stated that the helicopters which have been flying in Syria were based at Tartus. Several observers noted that at least one of the helicopters was the new Mi-25 helicopter gunship, not the Mi-17 helicopters sold earlier to Syria. There is some speculation as to who is flying these as there seems to have been no Syrian pilots rated on the Mi-25s. In 2009 President Assad agreed to the port's conversion into a permanent Middle East base for Russia's nuclear-armed warships. Since 2009, Russia has been renovating the Tartus naval base and dredging the port to allow access for its larger naval vessels. It is clear that the Russians see this base in the Mediterranean as a response to the Western efforts to site missile bases near to the Russian border and see the Tartus base as an important bargaining chip in negotiations with NATO. To achieve the security of tenure for the Tartus base it is vitally important for the Russians to keep Bashar Assad in power as any successor would likely order the closing of the base or seek to extract a higher price for its continuation. The motives on the Saudi and Qatari side are also relatively easy to comprehend. It is their co-religionists who are suffering and this causes problems at home, especially for the Saudis who are 'keepers of the Holy Cities'. More importantly the Saudis, Qatari and many of the nations of the Gulf are in a continuous battle with the Iranian Shia under its fundamentalist leaders and the Pasdaran militants. The current strife in Bahrain, where a powerful Sunni leadership has been attacked by a majority Shia citizenry led to the deployment of Saudi troops in Bahrain to protect the Sunni leadership. This struggle is far from over and the Western reaction toward the repression of the Shia 'rebels' has not been entirely in favour of the Sunnis. The West's backing for a Shia-led Iraqi Government which supplanted the Sunni leadership by force has posed serious questions to the states of the Gulf who have been asked by the U.S. for their support in the fight against 'The War on Terror'; especially that against Al Qaida. The West is reliant on these states for the stationing of its UAVs in the area of the Gulf and the Horn of Africa. They are based at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base and Al Jaber Air Base, as well as Seeb Air Base in Oman. There is a major air control operation at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and a new CIA base in Northern Saudi Arabia. These are crucial for the forward positioning of drones in the area. Also the U.S. finds itself increasingly dependent on air bases like Incirlik Air Base in Turkey where 5,000 U.S. airmen are stationed proving a force near to the Lebanon and Syria as well as a main supply base for the war in Afghanistan. There is another large base at Izmir. The 41-year-old American-Turkish Pirinclik Force Base near Diyarbakır, known as NATO's frontier post for monitoring the former Soviet Union and the Middle East, closed on 30 September 1997. However, with the closure of the Pakistani road routes into Afghanistan there have been some important fuel shipments to Bagram from Diyarbakir. The U.S. has many important reasons for staying in a broad alliance with the Sunni nations of the Gulf and with Turkey which far outweigh any short-term adventures in Syria. There are other reasons as well which shape U.S. strategy and political thinking. The key point which worries planners is that no one knows who will replace Assad and the Alawi if the regime is toppled. The failures of the successor regimes in Libya and the current struggle between the Egyptian Army and the Muslim Brotherhood after the fall of Mubarak (not to mention the disappointment in Tunisia) gives no one any confidence that the replacement for Assad would be in the U.S's short-term or long-term interest. Robert Satloff summarised the various scenarios in Syria succinctly[i] "They include: · Syrian army units responsible for the control of the regime's substantial chemical and biological weapons stocks leave their posts, either through defection, mutiny, attack from insurgents or orders from superiors to fight elsewhere, and these weapons of mass destruction go rogue. · Syria lashes out at Turkey's hosting of anti-Assad rebels by offering aid and comfort to a rejuvenated PKK insurgency against Ankara, reigniting a hellish Kurdish terrorist campaign that has claimed more than 30,000 Turkish lives over the past 30 years. · Syria pushes hundreds of thousands of hapless Palestinians still living in government-controlled refugee camps over the Jordanian, Lebanese and even Israeli borders as a way to regionalize the conflict and undermine the stability of neighbouring states. · Syrian soldiers, Alawi thugs and their Hizbollah allies take their anti-Sunni crusade to the Sunnis of Lebanon, reigniting a fifteen-year conflict that sucked regional proxies—and U.S. marines—into its vortex. · Thousands of jihadists descend on Syria to fight the apostate Alawite regime, transforming this large Eastern Mediterranean country into the global nexus of violent Islamist terrorists. This is not to forget the interests of Israel and the contested Golan Heights dispute. This is certainly an issue which no major player wants to start again. Still less does the West wish to engage in confrontation with the Russians, especially as long as the fuel routes into Afghanistan through Pakistan are not freely open to traffic. Without them the over flight of Russia for supply shipments to Afghanistan and the unencumbered use of the U.S. base at Manas in Kyrgystan for the same purpose might be impaired. There seems nothing positive to be gained by the U.S., engaging in military intervention in Syria. There are only disadvantages. While it is a pity to see so many suffering people, relieving their suffering by military intervention will not guarantee (as in Libya) the end of their suffering and, at the same time, might impact negatively on U.S. security objectives. This doesn't mean there is nothing to be done. The Saudis and the Arab OPEC states have already begun their retaliation against Russia. This morning the OPEC nations announced that they were not reducing their output to accommodate the dramatic drop in demand for oil as a result of the Euro crisis and the slowing down of the economies. Russia requires a price of crude oil of about US$115 per barrel to make its budget break even. If the price is below $115 Russia loses money on every barrel. Prices can remain high if supply is curtailed but the major Arab OPEC states have refused to curtail output which has put the Russians in a bind. Russia is already worried about its potential loss of market share in the natural gas business with the rise of North American shale gas and the expansion of the Qatari gas dome. The Russians are finding themselves under growing financial pressure. No one knows if this will shift their political posture towards Syria but it will certainly have an effect on its cash flows. So, when evaluating the role of the U.S. on the Syrian issue it seems as though doing nothing is probably the best policy. There is no need to stop promoting human rights but there is also no reason to engage in anything more severe than that. Unfortunately the U.S. lives in a comp0licated and interrelated world. The astigmatic utterances of men like John McCain illustrate just how lucky the American people were to have avoided his presidency. [i] Robert Satloff, 'Why A Syrian Civil War Would Be A Disaster for U.S. National Security', New Republic 7/6/12 PAGE 1 2
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